中国的经济增长模式有望发生改变

For the better part of a decade, leaders have talked about new engines: stronger domestic consumption, greater investment in services and a liberalized financial sector. The question is whether Beijing can finally unleash their potential.
The global financial crisis delayed the transition, pushing the government to crank up investment in property and infrastructure - the crux of the old model - to keep growth aloft.
With the economy now slowing again, there are signs that Beijing sees the danger of falling back once more on heavy investment - and that it is this time more serious about launching the structural reforms needed to push the country in a new direction.
Loosening the official grip on the renminbi is crucial because a stronger currency would encourage businesses to focus less on exports and more on service industries from healthcare to accountancy. With its trademark gradualism, China has made strides in the past two years on this front. It has created an offshore renminbi market in Hong Kong; though still in its infancy, this has provided a valuable testing ground for a freely traded currency.
Another critical change is to let the market determine interest rates, which would raise the cost of capital, deterring wasteful investment and giving households a better return on their savings. Beijing has begun to experiment around the margins, allowing a wealth management industry to develop that in effect functions like a liberalised banking sector.
Third, the social safety net needs to be fortified. Having smashed the “iron rice bowl” of the Maoist era, China is trying to fill the void by ramping up investment in health, education and welfare. Increased state funding for these will give people the confidence to spend more freely.
From the exchange rate to interest rates and savings rates, reformers in Beijing are slowly moving in the right direction. Their challenge is to unlock China’s new growth model before the old one expires.
近十年的大部分时间里，领导人们已经就新的增长引擎展开了讨论：提振内需，加大服务业投资和放开金融领域。问题在于，中国政府最终能否释放它们的潜力。
全球金融危机延迟了中国经济的转型，促使中国政府加大对房地产和基础设施的投资（这是旧模式的核心）来保持高增长。
随着中国经济增长再次放缓，有迹象显示，中国政府看到了再次依赖大举投资的风险，因此这次政府正更加认真地考虑推出结构性改革，这是推动中国经济转向所必需的改革。
放 松对人民币汇率的控制至关重要，因为人民币升值将鼓励企业把重点从出口转向服务行业，从医疗保健到会计服务。过去两年内，中国已经以其标志性的渐进方式， 在这方面取得了长足的进步。中国在香港创建了离岸人民币市场，虽然该市场仍处于初级阶段，但它为人民币自由贸易提供了宝贵的试验。
另一项关键改革是让市场决定利率，这将提高资金成本，防止浪费性投资，并让家庭储蓄获得更高的回报。中国政府已经开始在小范围内进行试验，允许财富管理行业发展出这种功能，实际与银行部门自由化的效果类似。
第三，中国政府需要加强社会保障体系。在打破毛泽东时代的“铁饭碗”之后，中国正努力通过加大对医疗、教育和福利方面的投资来填补这方面的空白。政府在这些领域增加投资，将让民众有信心更随心所欲地消费。
瑞银(UBS)经济学家王涛表示：“中国在过去两三年内取得了进步，但构建社保体系需要时间。”
从汇率到利率和储蓄率，中国政府的改革者正缓慢地朝着正确的方向前进。他们面临的挑战是，要在旧模式失效之前开启中国新的增长模式。