从国庆旅游数据看中国真正的消费状况

　　The total number of people arriving at major tourist sites in China over the first two days of the 'National Day' holiday is up 18.8% from last year. That represents a slight slowdown from 21% growth during the holiday week last year. But it compares favorably with an 8.8% rise in 2011 and just 6.5% in 2010, according to Bank of America-Merrill Lynch economist Lu Ting.

　　Other data tell a similar story. On Oct. 1, the first day of the holiday, Chinese railroads carried 10.3 million passengers. That's up 13.2% from a year earlier, according to government figures.

　　Unfortunately, like those scenic spots, investments on the Chinese travel theme have become crowded. Shares in travel-booking site Ctrip.com International, for instance, have more than doubled this year and now trade at more than 63 times this year's expected earnings, according to FactSet.

　　But investors should still cheer the strong tourist data, because it signals that Chinese consumers are very much alive and kicking.

　　As a proxy for consumer activity, the tourist figures may be superior to official retail sales figures. The National Bureau of Statistics tabulate the latter and these government statisticians exclude all kinds of consumer services, from travel to haircuts, while including some government purchases. Retail sales in the first eight months of 2013 increased 12.8% year on year.

　　What's more, because many purchases in China are made in cash and off the books, many economists believe that consumption is severely under-counted in official estimates. In a recent report, Standard Chartered cited work by professors at two universities in Shanghai, who estimated that in 2009 household consumption was close to 50% of the economy, compared to the NBS estimate of just 35.3%.

　　Not all economists would put the true consumption figure quite so high, though most agree the official figures are significantly understated.

　　For years, critics have lamented China's slow transition to a consumer-led economic model. This week's strong tourist data is just the latest indication that China is further along on the path to rebalancing than many give it credit for.