国际油价背后的中美较量

随着夏季的来临，中美两国都出现了油荒的问题，中美的较量促使国际油价跌宕起伏。

国际油价背后的中美较量
US, China Pull Oil Market In Opposite Directions

The U.S. summer driving season starts next week amid predictions that gasoline consumption in the U.S. will be lower than last year as squeezed motorists cut back due to high prices. Fear that this phenomenon will diminish overall oil demand has been a big factor in the recent fall in international oil prices from their April high of $127 a barrel.

However on the other side of the world, industry observers see the opposite situation due to the threat of electricity shortages in China. If power supply is tightly rationed this summer and the Chinese turn to backup oil-fired generators as they have in the past, oil demand may be significantly higher than previous predictions.

With the balance between global oil supply and demand seen increasingly tight, which of these countervailing trends proves stronger could have a significant impact on prices in the second half of this year.

'Chinese diesel shortages could, by themselves, mitigate all of the weakness possibly emanating from the OECD due to higher prices and still tighten global balances further,' said analysts at Barclays Capital.

The Chinese side of this equation is the more certain. A drought has seriously depleted many reservoirs that feed hydroelectric plants. Water in China's immense Three Gorges dam has fallen below the level required to run its electricity turbines effectively, official news agency Xinhua reported Wednesday. High coal prices are also causing problems.

'Power outages are estimated at between 30 gigawatts, by the China Electricity Council and 50GW, by South China Grid,' said Eurasia Group analyst Robert Johnston. When the same thing has occurred in recent years, people have turned to back-up diesel generators to fill the gap.

Increased use of diesel generators has boosted Chinese oil demand by 400,000-600,000 barrels a day in previous summers, according to Barclays analysts. Many analysts, including the International Energy Agency, predict a more modest boost of around 300,000 barrels a day this summer as power shortages are are less severe than previous years, but still significant.

The picture in the U.S. is much less clear. The price of gasoline recently hit the $4 a gallon mark, which is widely seen as the point at which motorists start to reduce the number of miles they drive. But prices have fallen since then, and the strength of the U.S. economy remains difficult to assess.

For example, last month the influential analysts at Goldman Sachs were emphasizing the near-term weakness in the oil market due to 'nascent signs of oil demand destruction in the United States.' This week, Goldman said that process was likely to reverse, following a drop in gasoline prices, and shifted to a more bullish outlook for oil in the second half of the year.

Data is mixed. Gasoline stockpiles have increased for three straight weeks and most analysis shows consumption down by a couple of percentage points compared with last summer. However, a survey by travel and leisure group AAA last week predicted a fall of just 0.3% in the number of Americans driving to a vacation destination this summer despite high prices.

Estimates for U.S. gasoline demand this summer are all over the map. The U.S. Energy Information Administration still expects a year-to-year increase in liquid fuel consumption of 109,000 barrels a day, although it has trimmed this figure recently.

Another well-respected provider of energy data, the International Energy Agency, recently cut 190,000 barrels a day from its 2011 oil demand forecast this month, citing weak U.S. fuel demand. 'We believe U.S. gasoline demand will indeed disappoint this year,' it said in its monthly oil market report.

Until more data comes in it will be difficult to judge which of the two opposing forces will prove more significant. The most bearish view says current consumption trends, affected by the recent peak in prices, imply U.S. oil demand could fall by more than 1 million barrels a day, according to Petromatrix analyst Olivier Jakob. 'The drop in US oil demand dwarfs the increase in oil demand from China,' he said.
 

美国暑假驾车出游季即将于下周开始，此时有预测说，随着生活拮据的开车人因高油价减少开车，美国汽油消费量可能会低于去年。对这种现象降低石油总需求的担心，是国际油价近期从每桶127美元的4月份高位下降的一个重要原因。

Associated Press美国暑假驾车出游季即将于下周开始，此时有预测说，随着生活拮据的开车人因高油价减少开车，美国汽油消费量可能会低于去年。但在世界另一面，行业观察者看到的却是相反的情形，因为中国面临着电力短缺的威胁。如果今夏大力限电，中国人又像过去那样用上备用燃油发电机，那么石油需求可能就会大幅高于先前预测。

在人们认为全球石油供需差距越来越窄的情况下，这两种相反趋势到时候哪一种胜出，可能会对今年下半年的油价产生很大影响。

巴克莱资本(Barclays Capital)分析师说，仅中国的柴油短缺本身，就有可能缓解石油需求的疲软，并进一步缩小全球供需差距；需求的疲软可能来自于经合组织(OECD)国家，原因是价格上涨。

等式的中国一面更加明确。旱情导致很多电站水库干涸。官方通讯社新华社报道，中国三峡大坝水位已经下降到有效运转涡轮机所需水平以下。煤炭价格的高企也在带来麻烦。

美国智库Eurasia Group分析师约翰斯通(Robert Johnston)说，中国电力企业联合会估计缺电300亿瓦，南方电网估计缺电500亿瓦。近些年缺电的时候，人们曾使用备用柴油发电机填补电力缺口。

巴克莱分析师说，柴油发电机使用量的增加，在以往的夏季将中国的每日石油需求提高了40万到60万桶。包括国际能源署(International Energy Agency)在内的很多分析机构都预测，今年夏季石油需求的提高量将在每日30万桶左右，低于往年，原因是今年的电力短缺没有以往严重，但这个提高量仍旧不小。

但美国的情况却更加不明朗。最近汽油价格涨至每加仑4美元大关，普遍认为这是驾车人开始减少驾驶里程数的转折点。但自那以后油价已经下跌，美国的经济实力依然难以评估。

例如，上个月高盛集团（Goldman Sachs）几位颇有影响力的分析师强调，近期原油市场的疲软是因为美国市场开始显现原油需求大幅减少的现象。本周高盛表示，在汽油价格下跌后上述状况可能逆转，今年下半年原油市场的前景可能会乐观的多。

统计数据喜忧参半。汽油库存已连续三周上升，大多数分析显示与去年夏天相比，汽油消费量下降了几个百分点。不过，旅游休闲组织美国汽车协会（AAA）展开的一项调查预计，尽管油价高企，但今年夏天驾车前往度假胜地的美国人数量仅仅减少了0.3%。

各个机构对今年夏天美国汽油需求的估计存在很大不同。尽管近期修正了数据，美国能源情报署（U.S. Energy Information Administration）依旧预计按年增长率计算，每日原油消费将增加10.9万桶。

本月，另一家备受尊敬的能源数据发布机构国际能源署（International Energy Agency）以美国需求疲软为由将其对2011年每日原油需求的预测削减了19万桶。国际能源署在月度原油市场报告中说，我们认为今年美国汽油需求肯定将令人失望。

在进一步数据出炉前，很难判断在上述完全对立的两种预测中，哪一方的看法更加准确。据Petromatrix分析师雅各布（Olivier Jakob）透露，最悲观的看法认为，受近期油价创下新高影响，目前的原油消费趋势意味着美国每日原油需求将下降超过100万桶。雅各布说，美国原油需求的降幅令中国需求的增量相形见绌。